For what it’s worth, Mississippi State is still playing for bowl eligibility. Both defensive units are also top 50 in scoring opportunities allowed in the last 6 weeks, which means there could be a few more punts than there usually are in Ole Miss contests. Mississippi State is 21st in defensive PPA, 22nd in success rate allowed and 54th in explosiveness in that time, while Ole Miss is 45th, 61st and 45th in those metrics, respectively. These defenses have been fairly good since Week 7. I believe the under trend is going to continue in this standalone Thanksgiving game. Furthermore, there have been 55 points or less in 5 straight Egg Bowls. The Bulldogs won in Oxford last year while catching points, so this series is tied 3-3 in the last 6 years. That matchup is the intrastate rivalry between Ole Miss and Mississippi State, referred to as the “Egg Bowl.” This will be the 24th time this rivalry game will be played on Thanksgiving and the 7th consecutive time since 2017. While most Americans focus on the 3 NFL games on Thanksgiving, college football fans know there is 1 FBS matchup annually that embodies a similar holiday tradition.
